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1994-05-02
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<text>
<title>
Argentina: World Trade Outlook
</title>
<article>
<hdr>
World Trade Outlook 1992: Argentina
Market-Opening Measures May Spur U.S. Exports
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By Randolph Mye
</p>
<p>U.S. exports to Argentina in 1991 increased nearly 74 percent
from a year earlier. This rapid expansion reflected significant
market-opening measures by the government of Argentina,
significantly positive economic growth (4 percent) for the
first time in three years, and substantially reduced inflation.
</p>
<p>U.S. exports 1991--$2.0 billion U.S. imports 1991--$1.3
billion
</p>
<p> Virtually all categories of U.S. exports showed some
increase. A significant expansion in capital goods exports--energy related, electric, and transport equipment--showed
notable increases, as Argentine industrial output registered
significant gains during 1991. Industrial output is estimated to
have increased by nearly 13 percent with the food processing,
consumer durables, cement, and transport sectors performing
quite well. Construction increased in the latter part of 1991
and appears continuing into the early months of 1992.
</p>
<p> This revival in industrial output can be attributed to a
rebound in private sector confidence promoted by the
government's efforts to reorganize its economic house. The
introduction of a fixed exchange rate system in April 1991,
combined with sharp restrictions on Central Bank financing of
the non-financial public sector, were instrumental in
establishing the credibility of the government's stabilization
policies.
</p>
<p> A creditable fiscal regime was instituted, leading to a small
surplus in the budget. However, this surplus was inadequate to
cover a significant portion of the interest and principal
payments due on the government's commercial bank debt. As a
result, arrears on foreign debt did increase in 1991.
Nevertheless, inflation has dropped significantly to about 1.5
percent per month, after reaching about 40 percent in 1989.
Interest rates have moved downward and credit has become more
available. These factors have stimulated both office and housing
construction and revived credit financing for consumer durables.
</p>
<p> To reinforce the stabilization measures, the government has
undertaken structural reforms to reduce barriers to
international trade and to reduce the size of the national
government by privatizing major public sector enterprises--the
telephone, transport, energy, and water/sewage systems.
Additionally, they are attempting to reform and restructure
public sector finances, labor laws, and social security systems
to increase both efficiency and financial viability. These
measures and those already taken are geared to establishing a
sustainable economic growth path. Economic growth in 1992 is
forecast to reach 6 percent, with inflation in the 20 to 30
percent range. Private sector investment is picking up,
resulting in a fairly strong raise in the investment-GDP ratio.
The energy sector is expected to lead the recovery, spurred by
rapid growth in investment.
</p>
<p> Export growth in 1992 will probably not keep pace with the
record rate of 1991, but should register a strong expansion of
10 percent. The principal growth areas will be intermediate
goods for the chemical and agro-industrial sectors--insecticide mixes and chemical preparations for pharmaceuticals.
Capital goods exports for the energy, metallurgical, transport,
and water/sewage sectors should do quite well.
</p>
<p> Overall U.S. exports should reach $2.2 billion in 1992 and
the U.S. share of the Argentine market should stay close to the
current 23 percent. U.S. investor interest has risen
dramatically in the past year and will be further stimulated by
the final ratification of the Bilateral Investment Treaty signed
on Nov. 14, 1992.
</p>
<p> For further information on the Argentine market, contact
Randolph Mye at (202) 482-1548.
</p>
<p>Source: International Trade Administration, Business America Magazine
</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>